The climate: defend and attack

We are talking about the beauty and, in a way, the privilege of living on the 45th parallel, which has always been characterized by a mild, temperate climate without unpleasant weather peaks. At least in principle, considering that we are talking about the entire tour of the planet, but especially because the weather report begins to tell us of a different situation. Will global changes keep the 45th parallel a privileged climatic zone? Science can provide the answer, Slowear asked Serena Giacomin, a physicist, climatologist, and president of the Italian Climate Network, an observer association to the UNFCCC, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Will we need to redesign the maps as the world's climate zones change?

S.G.: The error lies in suggesting that change will only occur in the future. Instead, we must address the present because the climate has already undergone significant changes. According to all the data available to the international community, extremism is already manifesting itself. The challenge now is not only to continue to analyze the various changes taking place on a planetary scale but, above all, to use these data as tools to accelerate the adaptation of different areas of the planet.

So what should we do, scientifically speaking?

S.G.: Defend ourselves and then attack the problem. Adaptation is defense, attack is to take every action to reduce emissions. We must be careful not to confine the problem to areas that only partially affect us: all human activities are linked to the climate. From everyday life to the most complex economic activities. All of us, all of our habits are changing. Considering climate change solely as an environmental and ethical concern doesn't capture the full scope of its impact, as it permeates every aspect of our lives. Can you give us some practical examples? We think about the impact of disease or the spread of parasites and the associated health care costs. Or the impact on human rights for developing countries most vulnerable to change.

Let's go back to the 45th parallel. What do we have to expect in 2050: will we still have vines, or will we have to expect a change in the main characteristics of agriculture? Winemakers are already telling us that the harvest begins a month earlier than it did 20 years ago.

S.G.: Well, it is impossible to make an extended argument about the whole parallel since it changes significantly from one part of the world to another. As I said, we already have all the data if we limit ourselves to the Mediterranean. The IPCC AR6 report has identified it as a hot spot for years. Its configuration implies increasingly rapid warming with greater salinization, with all that this means for the balance of biodiversity, among other things.
Nor can we overlook that we are in the north of the African continent, whose anticyclone is increasingly breaking through. It is not normal to have temperatures of 48 C in Europe.

The objection is that it is normal to be hot in the summer.

S.G.: No, it is not normal when we register 10 or 12 C higher than the Mediterranean summer average. Reducing the scale of the problem means not alerting citizens to its actual impact: think of the health implications of days when the thermometer does not drop below 35 C, even at night, for the oldest population or children under five.

Nonetheless, there is a prevalent school of thought in the media that suggests we are currently undergoing a typical climate cycle. How do you explain this?

S.G.: I don't explain it at all because the data is there, and it's irrefutable. Opinions are opinions, and science is science. Some fear that accepting climate change could hurt the economy. Another misconception is that technology in an orderly ecological transition offers more economic opportunities than risks. Of course, change is not easy, but as a climatologist, postponing it will only worsen the situation. We've been talking for 50 years; it's time to act.

You have a young son. How do you feel about his future?

S.G.: Are you asking me if I'm worried? Of course, I am, and I wish I could give him a more optimistic view. I'm going to try to help him grow with an awareness that will allow him to decide. But for now, the future certainly depends on us, but also on who has to make the decisions, and I like to see that a collective mechanism of proactive reaction has been established. There is no need to fight; we must adapt and mitigate emissions. Defend ourselves and attack.